What’s inside:
- One-week implied volatility drops below 7%
- EURUSD working off overbought conditions, in need of a consolidation/shallow pullback
- One-week projected high aligns nearly perfectly with November spike-high
Below, listed are levels of one-day and one-week implied volatility (IV) for USD-pairs. Via these levels, we’ve calculated the one-standard deviation range-low/high prices from the current spot price for specified periods. (Theoretically speaking, 68% of the time price should remain within the lower and upper-bounds.)
EURUSD – One-week implied volatility points to subdued price action (consolidation); range-high projection aligns with November US election spike-high
The euro is finally taking a breather after what has been its biggest run in quite some time. Recent momentum suggests there is more upside to come, but a period of consolidation or a pullback may be needed to reload for another push into overhead levels. One of those key levels on the top-side in focus, the November US election spike-high, is in alignment with the projected one-week range-high of 11293. Look for signs of sellers stepping in at that point.
Turning our focus lower, support comes in around the mid-111s. This is an area which EURUSD briefly stalled last week before continuing on through. Old resistance is now new support. Looking at the projected one-week low within one standard deviation, support arrives above the projected range-low price at 11085. If the euro can continue to hold its recent momentum intact then a drop below support won’t likely take shape, and if it does look for it to be short-lived as dip-buyers step in.
So, while one-week implied volatility has dropped to under 7% it may be priced about right with choppier trading conditions seen as a likely scenario in the week ahead.
EURUSD: Daily
See the Webinar Calendar for a schedule of upcoming live events with DailyFX analysts.
---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
Comments
Post a Comment